You're Cooked: Lessons from the Second Round
Vegas, Washington, Winnipeg, and Toronto were eliminated in Round 2. Each team's shortcomings help us figure out what makes -- and what doesn't make -- a true Cup contender.
Happy Monday, hockey fans. The second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs is officially behind us after Sunday night’s implosion at Maple Leaf Square. The Panthers, Hurricanes, Oilers, and Stars remain to fight for conference supremacy and a trip to the Final.
With just four teams left in the field, we’re seeing the differences between really good teams, and the teams that have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup.
We can look at this two ways: What do the contenders have, and what did the second-round exits lack?
You need to have everything and more to win a Cup in our year of Lord Stanley 2025, and the four teams left have their differences. But the Panthers, Hurricanes, Oilers, and Stars have two huge commonalities that have set them apart this postseason.
Goaltending
Among all playoff goalies, Freddie Andersen is No. 1 in Goals Saved Above Expected with 12.2 and Jake Oettinger is No. 3 with 6.8. Andersen ranks No. 1 in goals against average with 1.36 (YAWN!), Sergei Bobrovsky is No. 4 with 2.31, and Jake Oettinger and Calvin Pickard are averaging less than three goals per game. Andersen is rocking a .937 save percentage and Oettinger has risen to a .919.
The playoffs are truly about moments and context when it comes to goaltending, so that’s why we can look at the Panthers and the Oilers and say they have had some of the strongest goaltending performances of the postseason even if it hasn’t been perfect. These front offices didn’t structure their teams around goaltending as the No. 1 X-factor — the Panthers knew they could expect some clutch moments from Bobrovsky but that he isn’t necessarily consistent. The rest of the team has been able to immediately bounce back from any Bad Bob Bounce, and his clutch moments have returned the favor.
For the Oilers, the momentum of the series shifted when Calvin Pickard entered the net even if he didn’t have much to do with it. Knowing there was a playable option behind Stuart Skinner was huge for morale, then Skinner came back and pitched two consecutive shutouts to close out the series against the Golden Knights.
Generating quality chances against quality teams
I understand how obvious and silly this sounds. Of course the teams that rise above are the teams that score more goals than they allow, and the chance of doing that increases with the number of dangerous shots you take.
I just think our perception of what this actually looks like is funny sometimes. We seem to operate under the premise that the Hurricanes just throw any old shot at the net to see if it sticks, and there is some junk with the sheer volume, but according to NaturalStatTrick.com they’ve generated the fourth-most high danger chances of the playoffs at five-on-five with 115. The top three? Edmonton with 136, Dallas with 125, and Florida with 119.
Can you guess which teams have generated the most expected goals at five-on-five throughout the playoffs so far?
*”Dora the Explorer”-esque pause*
Correct!
The Oilers (29.45), the Stars (28.89), the Hurricanes (26.91), and the Panthers (26.86).
These four teams are the teams that have found the ability to break through against high quality opponents and create the most dangerous opportunities on a consistent basis.
The most interesting development here is that it doesn’t matter how it happens: Prevent the other team from doing it by taking all kinds of shots then pounce, get a hat trick from each of your trade deadline acquisitions every other night, get your pack of rats in front of the net, or simply draft Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.